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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Discussion in 'Analisa Fundamental' started by Forextime FXTM, Sep 6, 2016.

  1. Forextime FXTM

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    Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

    Trade war fears to dominate market moves this week



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    Intense G7 meeting

    After imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on its closest allies, the U.S. will be facing enormous criticism at the G7 summit on Friday in Quebec or, as the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire likes to call it, “G6 plus one.”

    “When you’re almost 800 Billion Dollars a year down on Trade, you can’t lose a Trade War! The U.S. has been ripped off by other countries for years on Trade, time to get smart!” Donald Trump

    Whether President Trump is playing a smart strategic game or is seriously considering getting into a trade war remains unknown, but the probability of a full-blown trade war has undoubtedly increased significantly.

    The summit is due to take place after the U.S. and China trade negotiations ended on Sunday without any significant progress made. In fact, China warned the U.S. that any move to implement tariffs on Chinese products would ruin the negotiations.

    Although markets in Asia are rallying after the U.S employment report released on Friday showed a robust surge in numbers and new elections were avoided in Italy, this optimism will soon disappear if the Trump administration pulls the trigger on the threatened tariffs on $50bn worth of Chinese exports. So, keep a close eye on Trump’s Twitter account for updates.


    Europe’s Politics and data to be in focus

    The Euro struggled last week, with Italian and Spanish political turmoil sending the single currency to its lowest level since July 2017. The compromise reached between the Italian President and the populist coalition prevented further losses as a new election seems to be off the cards for now. This relief was reflected in Italian bonds where 2-year yields fell 200 basis points from Tuesday’s high. However, the Euro’s recovery may be short-lived if the new Italian government moves ahead with its proposed massive spending agenda and tax reductions. These actions will not only create conflict with Brussels but will also invite credit rating agencies to cut their debt ratings.

    On the data front, the Eurozone Services PMI is likely to confirm that the economy continued to slow down as it entered Q2. Another round of negative economic releases will lead the ECB to postpone ending QE and thus drag the Euro further. The UK services PMI, Germany’s industrial production and factory orders will also be in focus this week.



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  2. Forextime FXTM

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    Oil slips further ahead of OPEC meeting


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    Oil markets have suffered another blow today as US oil inventories showed an increase of 2.07M barrels (-2.1M exp), while at the same time US gasoline inventories also showed a strong increase to 4.6M (0.5M exp). This has come as a bit of surprise for the market which had been expected drawdown's and probably more so for OPEC and its allies, as they look to ramp up production to find an equilibrium and maximize profits from the high oil price we have at present. Certainly the OPEC meeting due out on the 22nd of June will be very interesting, where it is expected that Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue their ramping up of prices. Many are expecting that with Iran out of the picture this does give the Saudis and Russia the chance to put production up even if the price if oil is not doing well.

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    On the charts it has been very bearish for oil as of late. So far we saw a peak for oil at 72.81, followed by oil falling back down to earth in a hurry - not surprising given that oil trending very hard, and it does not always continue. This bullish buy hit resistance at 65.75 when trying to claw back some ground against the bears and it really does look like it may struggle to breakthrough this level in the interim. For bearish traders feasting off the data the next levels of support can be found at 64.17, with the potential to extend even lower to 62.65 in the long run. I would also focus on the long term potential trend line as well, which could propel oil to something further in the long. Looking at the bulls however resistance as mentioned above can be found at 65.75 and 67.45 in the long run, but it may take some cracking to get them through given the OPEC meeting.

    One of the other key winners today was the NZD which enjoyed the risk sentiment of the market as it started. So far the despite positive data the US market has enjoyed, it has translated into more foreign investment outside the US in other currencies and the NZD and AUD were no exception today.

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    Looking at the charts we can see that the NZD has cracked through the important 70 cent barrier mark and is climbing higher, but has stumbled against resistance at 0.7035. With bullish traders looking to assert themselves it would seem that the NZDUSD could end up taking on the next level of resistance at 0.7171 if the bulls stay in control. On the flip side support still remains at 0.6966 and 0.6819 in the long run.




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  3. Forextime FXTM

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    Trade war fears ease… but for how long?


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    Global stocks have bounced back to life after China’s central bank calmed markets by urging investors to “stay calm and rational”.

    While this move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could support risk sentiment and push equity markets higher in the short term, gains are likely to be limited. With trade war fears still a recurrent market theme that continues to weigh on sentiment, investors may start questioning the sustainability of the stock market rally. Markets are likely to remain cautious with any signs of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China potentially sparking a renewed wave of risk aversion.

    Bank of England policy meeting in focus

    Today’s main event risk for the British Pound will be the outcome of the Bank of England policy meeting, which is widely expected to conclude with monetary policy left unchanged.

    With the BoE expected to keep interest rates on hold, investors will most likely closely scrutinize the policy statement and MPC vote count for insight on rate hike timings beyond June. The Pound could weaken if the central bank expresses concerns over Brexit related uncertainty and political risk negatively impacting growth. Pound weakness may remain a dominant market theme if Brexit uncertainty results in the BoE repeatedly delaying monetary policy normalization.

    Taking a look at the technical picture, the GBPUSD is bearish on the daily charts. The solid daily close below 1.3200 could invite a further decline towards 1.3130 and 1.3100, respectively.

    Currency spotlight – Dollar

    The Dollar has scope to extend gains against a basket of major currencies amid market expectations over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates at least two more times this year.

    Away from the fundamentals, the technical picture remains heavily bullish with prices hovering near an 11-month peak as of writing. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows, while prices are trading firmly above the 200 daily Simple Moving Average. A firm daily close above the 95.00 level could open a path towards 95.35 and 96.00, respectively.

    Commodity spotlight – Oil

    There is a growing sense of uncertainty mounting ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting, with markets now re-evaluating if an output increase could still be on the table.

    While Saudi Arabia and Russia are pushing OPEC and its allies to raise production, other members including Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela have opposed such a move. With Iran already stating that it was likely to reject any agreement that raised output, this could be a fractious meeting between oil producers in Vienna. Whatever the outcome of the OPEC meeting, it could have a lasting impacting on oil prices.



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  4. Forextime FXTM

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    Lira jumps higher on Erdogan victory – but will the momentum last?



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    All eyes are on the Turkish Lira this morning with the currency rallying sharply in early trade today, following the news that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won the weekend election in Turkey. The Lira had advanced as much as 3% at time of writing with the currency currently standing as the only emerging market to be trading higher against the USD. The improved sentiment in the Lira is likely linked to confirmation of continued political leadership in Turkey.

    There will be some underlying concerns over whether this buying momentum for the Lira could actually last, especially when you consider that fears over the repercussions of an Erdogan victory had been one of the primary drivers behind the collapse in the Turkish Lira over the first half of 2018. There is every possibility that the rally in the Lira could be temporary. The currency has weakened beyond 20% during the first half of 2018, with one of the main contributors behind the Lira weakness being that Erdogan had promised to become an influence in economic matters and central bank policy if he won the election.

    Whether the Lira can actually maintain its strength over the next couple of days will be somewhat reliant on how international investors react to the news that Erdogan will have an extended rule of power in Turkey. Investor confidence in Turkey has suffered in the aftermath of fears that central bank independence would be at heavy threat in the event of an Erdogan victory, and it will take some serious convincing for investors to move back into Turkish assets.

    The possibility that the impressive rally this morning in the Lira could just be temporary shouldn’t be ruled out. I would expect for investors to closely monitor the developments in Turkey over the upcoming period. If there is an air of calm within Turkey it would be seen as a positive for the Lira, however any reports that the central bank will be instructed to significantly lower interest rates would be seen as a major threat for the currency.

    The other major headline in the FX markets is news of the Chinese Yuan weakening to its lowest level since December 2017. Fears over the possible ramifications that a trade war between the United States and China would have on the Chinese currency appear to have encouraged the Yuan to withdraw its previous gains in 2018 against the Dollar. The Yuan has now lost nearly 0.3% year-to-date, where it was previously seen as one of the best performing emerging market currencies this year.

    There is speculation that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) might be deliberately weakening the Yuan in an effort to strengthen the Chinese economy, in the event that the world’s two largest economies do actually get involved in a trade war. The central bank reduced the reserve ratio requirement for commercial banks by half a percentage point over the weekend, which some have attributed to providing the local economy with some ammunition should the trade war concerns with the United States intensify.

    Elsewhere and in a week where political risk will still likely play a leading role in driving market sentiment, an exception to this rule will be traders keeping a close eye on a scheduled speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney this coming Wednesday. Any comments on the future direction of UK interest rate policy will be particularly observed by the financial markets, after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unexpectedly voted 6-3 to keep interest rates unchanged during the most recent policy meeting.

    The news that BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane had unexpectedly voted for a UK interest rate increase in June has revived optimism that the BoE might be closer to raising UK interest rates than anyone would expect. This optimism has also encouraged the GBPUSD to rebound away from its lowest level this year.



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    Investor abaikan isu perang dagang, Rupiah menguat

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    Rupiah memasuki pekan perdagangan baru dengan positif karena Dolar AS melemah. Perhatian investor akan tertuju pada data penjualan ritel Indonesia yang dijadwalkan untuk dirilis di hari Rabu. Data penjualan bulan Mei bisa memberi wawasan baru mengenai keadaan ekonomi Indonesia. Jika data aktual lebih besar dari proyeksi pasar yaitu 4.4% maka Rupiah berpotensi semakin menguat.

    Ketegangan dagang mendominasi tajuk utama pekan lalu, namun investor Wall Street mengabaikan isu perang dagang dan menyambut gembira laporan lapangan kerja Amerika Serikat. 213000 lapangan kerja baru dibuka di ekonomi AS di bulan Juni, jauh melampaui proyeksi 195000. Sementara itu, data Mei ditingkatkan dari 223000 menjadi 244000. Pertumbuhan upah sedikit lebih rendah dari ekspektasi 2.8% YoY yaitu 2.7%. Walau demikian, pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang baik dan rendahnya inflasi upah adalah kombinasi positif untuk saham karena alasan sederhana. Pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang baik mencerminkan kekuatan ekonomi, inflasi upah yang rendah memberi fleksibilitas ekstra untuk Federal Reserve untuk memperketat kebijakan.

    Keadaan positif bisa terhenti kapan saja apabila investor yakin bahwa ketegangan dagang bergerak ke arah yang mengkhawatirkan. Sejauh ini, AS telah memberlakukan tarif $34 miliar untuk impor dari China, begitu pula China terhadap impor AS. Tahap ini jelas sudah terefleksikan pada harga. Meninjau kinerja saham Asia hari ini, investor sepertinya tidak berpendapat bahwa perang dagang akan terjadi. Walau begitu, Presiden Trump sulit ditebak sehingga momentum naik ini sepertinya akan terbatas, terutama untuk saham siklikal, hingga ada kejelasan mengenai isu perdagangan.

    Di pasar FX, Indeks Dolar merosot ke level terendah sejak 14 Juni yaitu di bawah 94 karena pertumbuhan upah yang stagnan. Trader perlu memantau rilis Indeks Harga Konsumen AS di hari Jumat yang diperkirakan akan meningkat 2.9% YoY yang merupakan peningkatan tahunan terbesar sejak Februari 2012. Apabila IHK melampaui acuan 3%, maka Dolar berpotensi sangat menguat karena ini berarti Fed tidak memiliki pilihan selain semakin memperketat kebijakan.

    Harga minyak menguat di awal pekan ini walaupun jumlah sumur minyak aktif di AS meningkat sebanyak 5 buah pada pekan lalu. Tweet Trump yang mendorong OPEC untuk meningkatkan produksi terbukti tidak terlalu berpengaruh untuk menurunkan harga minyak sejauh ini. Backwardation terus meningkat di kurva futures Brent dan WTI, merefleksikan ketatnya pasar minyak. Perhatian akan tertuju pada produksi OPEC bulan ini, terutama dari Arab Saudi, setelah Trump mendorong OPEC untuk mengambil langkah menurunkan harga minyak.



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  6. Forextime FXTM

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    BI pertahankan suku bunga acuan, Rupiah melemah



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    Rupiah anjlok ke level terendah tahunan baru terhadap Dolar AS setelah Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga sebesar 5.25% di bulan Juli.

    Sungguh mengkhawatirkan melihat Rupiah terus tertekan walaupun BI berusaha memperketat kebijakan moneter secara agresif selama dua bulan terakhir. Walaupun BI mempertahankan "posisi hawkish", namun tidak banyak membantu Rupiah yang sangat dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor eksternal. Dolar yang berkibar tetap menjadi tema dominan di pasar di tengah ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS dan ketegangan dagang global yang memengaruhi sentimen. Karena itu, Rupiah dan banyak mata uang pasar berkembang lainnya dapat semakin melemah.

    Para trader teknikal akan terus mengamati bagaimana USDIDR bertahan di atas level psikologis 14000. Harga sudah mencapai 14400 sehingga level kunci berikutnya adalah di kisaran 14750.

    Penjualan ritel Inggris mengecewakan, Pound terpukul

    Pound langsung diserang oleh para penjual setelah rilis penjualan ritel merosot -0.5% di bulan Juni, jauh dari ekspektasi pasar 0.2%.

    Pertumbuhan upah mengecewakan dan inflasi melambat. Apakah saat ini tepat untuk meningkatkan suku bunga? Ekspektasi pasar mengenai kenaikan suku bunga Bank of England bulan depan saat ini mungkin sudah sangat menipis dan ini mungkin sudah terefleksikan pada aksi harga Pound yang bearish. Pound sangat sensitif terhadap spekulasi kebijakan suku bunga, sehingga mata uang ini dapat semakin melemah ketika investor berpendapat bahwa kenaikan suku bunga kuartal ini menjadi lebih tidak mungkin terjadi.

    GBPUSD merosot ke level terendah 10 bulan di bawah 1.2990 pagi ini dan dapat semakin melemah selama bears mempertahankan kendali di bawah 1.3000. Jika Dolar terus menguat, level penting berikutnya dapat ditemukan di kisaran 1.2950.

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    Emas tergelincir ke level terendah tahunan baru

    Pekan trading ini mungkin sangat bearish untuk emas yang merosot ke level terendah tahun ini di tengah apresiasi Dolar.

    Depresiasi beberapa hari terakhir ini menyoroti bahwa emas tetap sangat sensitif dan berkorelasi negatif dengan Dolar. Ekspektasi pasar semakin tinggi bahwa Federal Reserve akan meningkatkan suku bunga dua kali lagi tahun ini sehingga emas tetap menjadi target empuk bagi investor bearish. Emas dapat semakin terpukul tanpa ampun oleh Dolar yang menguat secara umum pekan ini.

    Dari sisi teknis saja, emas bearish di grafik harian. Bears harian tetap memegang kendali penuh di bawah level $1236. Emas sudah menembus di bawah $1220 sehingga momentum turun dapat membuka jalan menuju $1200.

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    Bank of Japan unwilling to shift gears yet



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    After weeks of speculation that the Bank of Japan may begin to adjust its stimulus program, the central bank once again decided not to join the global trend towards tighter policies.

    The BoJ left its overnight interest rates unchanged at -0.1% and reiterated that it would resume buying Japanese Government Bonds to keep the 10-year yields around 0%. The bank may allow for more flexible movement on the 10-year bonds, however this isn’t considered a significant shift in policy.

    The BoJ also made tweaks to its ETF purchases, as it increased the composition of TOPIX-linked ETFs while shifting slightly away from the Nikkei 225 Index, but maintained its annual pace of ETF buying.

    It seems the Bank of Japan will be the last major central bank to pull the trigger on tightening policy as the Japanese economy continues to struggle with stubbornly low inflation levels. This should allow further widening in spreads between Japan’s bonds and other global bonds towards year-end, suggesting that the Yen is likely to remain under pressure for the near future.

    The Federal Reserve is next in line to announce policy on Wednesday. That’s why today’s Core Personal Expenditure figures carry significant importance. If Core PCE came in at 2% or above, it would reinforce expectations for two more rates hikes in 2018. Many traders want to know whether President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Fed will lead to a change in language; I believe there will be no change in guidance and the Fed will continue sending the message that more rate hikes are on the way.

    We also have inflation and Q2 GDP numbers from the Eurozone. Consumer Price Index figures are expected to rise 2.0% y-o-y in July, remaining unchanged from June. Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to see a 0.3% fall from a year ago, towards 2.2%.

    In equity markets, the tech sector continued to weigh on sentiment. Shares of Facebook, Twitter and Netflix plunged further on Monday, as investors started to become more worried about their business models after they announced their latest earnings results. Amazon and Alphabet were also dumped. Meanwhile, all eyes will shift to Apple earnings today in the hopes of providing some support for FAANG stocks.



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    #187 Forextime FXTM, Jul 31, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2018
  8. Forextime FXTM

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    Proposal tarif baru Trump menghantam saham, Rupiah melemah karena Fed optimis



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    Mata uang pasar berkembang terancam merosot tajam setelah Federal Reserve menyampaikan penilaian yang optimis mengenai ekonomi AS. Dolar sepertinya akan tetap sangat terangkat oleh spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS tahun ini, sehingga mata uang pasar berkembang termasuk Rupiah dapat terus melemah. Dari aspek teknis, USDIDR dapat menantang 14500 di jangka pendek apabila Dolar terus menguat.

    Isu perdagangan antara dua ekonomi terbesar dunia terus menghantui pasar di hari Kamis setelah Presiden Trump meminta pemerintahannya untuk mempertimbangkan peningkatan proposal tarif sebesar lebih dari dua kali lipat terhadap barang asal China senilai $200 miliar. Proposal tarif baru sebesar 25% ini memukul saham Asia pada awal perdagangan, sehingga Indeks Hang Seng merosot ke level terendah sejak September 2017. CSI 300 China dan Shanghai Composite turun lebih dari 2.5% sementara Yuan terus bergerak mendekati level terendah satu tahun.

    Meninjau ketegangan dagang yang semakin meningkat, investor memantau langkah pemerintah China berikutnya untuk mencegah penurunan besar lebih lanjut di pasar saham. Saya rasa pelonggaran kebijakan fiskal dan moneter adalah instrumen utama untuk saat ini. Walau demikian, menarik untuk kita perhatikan apakah China akan mulai menggunakan senjata yang lebih ganas terhadap AS dan menjual sebagian besar dari obligasi Treasury sebesar $1.2 triliun yang saat ini dimiliki China. Ancaman ini akan mengakibatkan imbal hasil Treasury melonjak tajam, sehingga biaya kredit menjadi lebih tinggi untuk pemerintah, perusahaan, dan konsumen. Jika China menggunakan senjata ini, kita akan menyaksikan panic selling di pasar saham AS dan global, tapi sepertinya pemerintah China masih akan menyimpan senjata ini.

    Seperti yang sudah diperkirakan, Federal Reserve mempertahankan suku bunga di hari Rabu dan mempertahankan persepsi bahwa suku bunga akan terus ditingkatkan secara bertahap. Walau begitu, pernyataan Federal Reserve memberi nuansa lebih optimis sehingga Dolar AS menguat. Komite Fed menyampaikan bahwa aktivitas ekonomi meningkat dengan laju yang pesat, dan belanja rumah tangga serta investasi bisnis pun meningkat tajam. Sedikit perubahan bahasa ini menyiratkan bahwa kenaikan suku bunga dapat kembali ditingkatkan di bulan September dan mungkin juga di bulan Desember.

    Emas melemah tanpa ampun karena Dolar menguat pekan ini. Harga bergerak menuju support $1213 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Ekspektasi pasar mengenai kenaikan suku bunga AS mengurangi selera terhadap emas dan memperkuat Dolar, sehingga logam mulia ini dapat semakin melemah. Penutupan harian tegas di bawah $1213 dapat memicu penurunan menuju level psikologis $1200.




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    Is Trump truly winning the trade war?


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    Escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain the financial markets’ hottest topic. President Trump seems to be celebrating winning the first battle of this war, saying that “tariffs are working big time” in a Tweet on Sunday. He believes that they will enable the U.S. to start reducing the large amount of debt accumulated throughout Obama’s administration. Trump also cited that the steep fall in Chinese equities as evidence that tariffs are working. In his opinion, they will make the U.S. much richer than it currently is and that “only fools would disagree”.

    The tariffs so far are approximately on $85 billion of imported goods. Assuming a 25% tariff, it would raise $21.25 billion. This number represents 1.33 % of the $1.6 trillion in additional debt President Trump has accumulated since taking office in 2017 and only 0.1% of the current $21 trillion in total debt. So, it doesn’t seem the imposed tariffs would reduce the American debt substantially.

    In my opinion, a large portion of the tariffs will be paid by U.S. consumers and I also expect CPI figures to begin reflecting these higher prices, especially if Trump’s administration imposes additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Rising inflation leads to higher U.S. interest rates, translating into higher cost of borrowing and debt servicing. Several U.S. companies have cut their profit forecast as a result of these tariffs, especially car makers; shares of GM, Ford, and Fiat Chrysler fell sharply after announcing their results. Other U.S. companies affected by Trump’s global trade war include Tyson Foods, Harley Davidson, United Technologies, Caterpillar and Coca-Cola, among several others.

    This explains why the S&P 500 failed to reach a new record high, despite 81% of companies so far managing to beat their profit forecast in one of the best earning seasons in history. Given that we’re almost at the end of earning season, trade wars will return to dominate the headlines. The next big risk is likely to be the U.S. midterm elections in November. I think there’s a high chance that the Democratic Party will take over the U.S. Congress and end the Republican single-party control. This won’t be good news for equities, and I expect to see rotation to non-cyclical stocks and an increase of cash in investors’ portfolios.




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    NZD falls on RBNZ dovish stance



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    It's been an exciting morning for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as they announced that they see rates being held at 1.75% until 2020 in the current market environment . This pails in regards to previous assumptions from economists that we would see a rate rise in early 2019, and with that thrown out of the window the NZD has fallen accordingly. There is hope that the NZ economy will see moderate growth to say the least, and that core inflation will also pick up in the long run, however all things considered and a trade war going on, it may be a hard ask to say the least. One thing is very clear though, and that is the RBNZ has taken a very dovish stance and provided some stern guidance on expectations and as a result markets will be looking to price this in.

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    For the NZDUSD it has been a case of free fall at this stage with the NZDUSD crashing through support at 0.6712 and heading down towards support at 0.6600. Certainly this is what the RBNZ is hoping for as a weaker kiwi dollar leads to higher export prices for producers. If the NZDUSD is able to swing things around and actually be bullish then resistance at 0.6755 is likely to be the main focus, with the 20 day moving average hovering around there. Beyond this there is a strong resistance band at 0.6833 and 0.6859 which will likely contain any bullish ambition. All in all though, it's likely the bears that will remain in control on the back of all this news.

    The other big mover today has been oil as it shot down the charts on some bearish swings. The catalyst of course was oil inventory data which showed a weaker than expected drawdown of -1.35M barrels (-3M exp) and a surge in gasoline inventories as well to 2.9M (-1.9M exp). All of this has taken the heat of the oil market which had been looking stronger on the back of Iran sanctions.

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    Looking at the movements of oil on the charts, it's clear to see that it has shot down lower and hit support around 66.03 in this instance, before seeing a small retreat. If we continue to see bearish pressure here then I would expect a fall to 63.98, but more importantly there is the trend line which could create an even bigger hurdle given it's bullish. If the bulls are able to come back in then resistance at 67.45 and 69.38 are likely to be the key targets, with the market seemingly being a little unsure on oil being over 70 dollars a barrel.




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