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Discussion in 'Analisa Teknikal' started by xtreamforex.com, Jan 3, 2019.

  1. xtreamforex.com

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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/CHF Currency Pair

    EUR USD


    EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1208.

    EUR/USD - Bears get clear signals ahead of ECB Meet.
    We have break below close below of Daily Ib and Weekly Ib.
    Bollinger bands facing towards south.EUR/USD near-term downside limited to channel base 1.1158
    Quiet Trading Expected Ahead Of Key Event RisksECB meeting Thursday and FOMC next week likely be catalysts for breakout.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12013 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11941. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12204, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12323.


    GBP CHF

    GBP traded higher against CHF and closed at 1.225.

    The GBP/CHF continued to trade downwards, targeting the lower area located @1.2000.

    Given that the currency pair is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour moving averages and has breached low of Monthly candle currently located in the 1.2285/1.2325 range, it is expected, that the British Pound could continue to depreciate against the Swiss Franc.


    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.22173 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.21845. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.22931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.23361.

    Fundamentals of the Day

    1) Dollar rises as fears of a 50 point interest-rate cut fade
    The U.S. dollar rose in afternoon trade on Friday as fears of a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point interest rate cut in July abated after the New York Federal Reserve walked back dovish comments from its president the prior day.

    2) ECB Bank Lending Survey
    The bank lending survey (BLS) for the euro area was launched in 2003. Its main objective is to enhance the Eurosystem’s knowledge of financing conditions in the euro area. The BLS provides input to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of monetary and economic developments, on which it bases its monetary policy decisions.

    3) FPC Meeting Minutes
    Bank of England Financial Policy Committee Minutes is a detailed record of the FPC's most recent meeting. The report, which is released quarterly, provides in-depth insights into the financial conditions and decisions towards financial stability.

    4) Tory Leadership Contest Result Announcement
    The UK Conservative Party is set to announce the results of the vote for its new leadership. UK tories have been voting for weeks and the race has been trimmed to two candidates: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. The winner of the contest will become the new British Prime Minister, succeeding Theresa May at the Number 10 Downing Street office.

    For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair

    EUR USD

    EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1121.

    Staying Tactically Bearish For 1.1050; A 50bp Fed Cut Would Be A Game Changer.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12150 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11543. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14118, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14725.


    GBP USD

    GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2343.

    To New 2019 Low As EU Affirms No Reopening Of Brexit Deal.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.25558 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24902. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27682, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.28338.


    COT Report for Different Currencies this week

    COT Report for Swisse
    Swissie Net Commercials volume is above the 0 mark and in a positive side showing Net Long positions in strength.
    Its a wise decision to remain Long on swissie.

    COT Report for Canadian Dollar
    Here In Canadian Dollar Net Commercials we see that from the 11th June- 18th June.
    The Canadian Dollar has weighted towards a Net Commercial Short Position.
    Means that Shorting Canadian Will be a wise decision, Alternatively Going Long on the retracements can also be entertained.

    COT Report for US Dollar
    US Dollar Net Commercial Positions Weighs towards the Net Short side.
    It can be clearly seen that from the Year start , the commercials have been interested in shorting the US Dollar.

    COT Report for GBP
    After facing turbulance from 19 March to almost a month, GBP Net commercials weigh towards the Long Net Positions.
    GBP may show some reaction to the COT Report this week.

    For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
  3. xtreamforex.com

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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pairs

    EUR USD

    EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1107.

    The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) today shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that the non-manufacturing sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the ISM Manufacturing does. A result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the USD.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1121 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1117. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1130 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1135.

    AUD USD

    AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6799.

    AUD/USD down 0.5% in sympathy with a weakening Yuan as China fights back.
    USD/CNY blasts through pivotal 7.00 as US-China trade tensions escalate.
    Leads to risk aversion in Asia as risk/EM assets sold across board.
    Havens JPY, XAU +0.5%, US-10 year yield hits 1.7890, lowest since Nov 9, 2016.
    Risk barometer AUD/JPY -1% to a new 2019 low; RBA to sound more dovish Tues?

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6776 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6768. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6789, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6794.

    NZD USD

    NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6540

    A number of downward slopping trend lines indicate weakness of NZD/USD.
    10-week old support-line grabs bears’ attention.
    In addition to a two-day long descending trend-line, the NZD/USD pair’s sustained trading below a resistance-line stretched since late-July also portrays its weakness as the quote seesaws near 0.6510 during early Monday.

    The Employment Change released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, today a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZ dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6521 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6513. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6533, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6537.
     
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    Technical Overview of AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

    AUD USD

    AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6756.

    • AUD/USD remains upbeat as the RBA renounce from the policy change.
    • The central bank stepped back from suggesting further rate cuts.
    • Trade/political news will be followed for fresh impulse.
    According to the report of The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), there will be no change in the monetary policy, offers a 1.0% interest rate. The central bank avoid from supporting further rate cuts while leaving the door open based on future growth conditions. Earlier during the day, upbeat trade balance data for June also pleased Aussie buyers.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.678 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.677. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6797 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6803.


    GBP USD

    GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2143.

    · GBP/USD stays on defensive 100 hour exponential moving average.
    · 4-day old support-line seems immediate rest ahead of 1.2080.


    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2101 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2189, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2233.

    USD JPY

    USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 105.9500.

    The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.

    Previous reading for Gross Domestic Product was 0.6%.
    Expected GDP is 0.1%.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 106.43 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.17. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.02, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.36.
     
  5. xtreamforex.com

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    Technical Overview of NZD/USD, EUR/USD and USD/CNY Currency Pair

    NZD USD

    NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6446.

    · Lower than expected USD/CNY fix and comments from RBNZ calming markets.
    · RBNZ asst Governor Hawkes by is confident inflation will rise after 50 BP cut.
    · Hawkes by said unconventional tools an option only if inflation tanks.
    · NZD/USD resistance at former support at 0.6480/90 where sellers are tipped.

    The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative. According To consensus GDP rate is expected to be lower than previous rate.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6455 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6452. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6461 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6463.


    EUR USD

    EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1199.

    Danske Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and expects a dip back towards 1.10 in EUR/USD on 1-3M on yet another Fed disappointment in September.


    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1211 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1209. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1214, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1216.

    USD CNY

    USD traded lower against CNY and closed at 7.0602.

    USD/CNY fix at 7.0039, which was below market estimates.

    The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It is a measure of retail price variations within a representative basket of goods and services. The result is a comprehensive summary of the results extracted from the urban consumer price index and rural consumer price index. The purchase power of the CNY is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A substantial consumer price index increase would indicate that inflation has become a destabilizing factor in the economy, potentially prompting The People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 7.0359 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 7.0116. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 7.0749, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 7.0896.
     
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    Technical Overview of AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD Currency Pair

    AUD USD

    AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6802.

    · RBA quarterly SOMP just released is in line with dovish market assumptions
    · RBA notes the downside risks posed by US-China trade war escalation
    · AUD/USD off early high (0.6822), but still holding above 0.6800

    The RBA Monetary Policy Statement released by the Reserve bank of Australia reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. It is considered as a clear guide to the future RBA interest rate policy. Any changes in this report affect the AUD volatility. If the RBA statement shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6713 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6666. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6789 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6818.


    GBP USD

    GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2133.

    The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).


    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2113 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2082. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2182, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2221.

    USD CAD

    USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3227.

    The employment Change released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.


    The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3279 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3251. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.334, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3373.
     
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    Technical Overview of USD/JPY, NZD/USD and USD/CHF Currency Pair

    USD JPY

    USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 105.6900.

    · USD/JPY: Bears staying in control in the Asian session.
    · USD/JPY4-hour chart: The pair is also at risk of extending its decline,

    USD/JPY has lost some ground as the yen takes up another bid while geopolitics keep the yen bulls in business ahead of a key week on the US calendar.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 105.3 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 104.92. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.04 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.39.


    NZD USD

    NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6468.

    · NZD/USD jumps 20 pips on comments by New Zealand's Treasury that QE is less appealing.

    · Treasury feels RBNZ could cut rates to the negative territory if required.

    NZD/USD is recovering lost ground on comments by New Zealand's Treasury that asset purchases or quantitative easing (QE) are a less appealing tool of monetary easing.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6402 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6359. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6478, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6512.


    USD CHF

    USD traded lower against CHF and closed at 0.9727.

    · USD/CHF's 4-hour and daily charts are showing signs of seller exhaustion.
    · The pair could rise to the 10-day moving average resistance during the day ahead.


    USD/CHF could see a corrective bounce to the 10-day moving average (MA) of 1.0938 during the day ahead as technical charts are flashing early signs of a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.9703 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9680. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9755, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9784.
     
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    Technical Overview of USD/CAD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD Currency Pair

    USD CAD

    USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3323.

    Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3270 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3250. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3304 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3338.


    USD JPY

    USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 106.62.

    FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 106.36 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.25. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.70, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.81.

    EUR USD

    EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1087.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1075 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1066. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1105, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1114.
     
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    Technical Overview of GBP/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF Currency Pair

    GBP USD

    GBP traded lower against USD and closed at 1.2130.

    GBP/USD seesaws inside a choppy range between 10 and 21-DMA.
    MACD flashes bullish signal.

    The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is an annual symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City since 1978, and held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, since 1981. It is a forum for central bankers, policy experts and academics to come together to focus on a topic.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2108 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2086. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2156 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2181.


    NZD USD

    NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6404.

    Retail Sales m/m reflect a change in New Zealand's retail sales in the reported month compared to the previous one. The calculation is adjusted for inflation. The index is often referred to as the consumer spending indicator, which allows assessing inflation in New Zealand. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on NZD quotes.


    Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6393 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6381. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6418, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6431.


    USD CHF

    EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 0.9819.

    The number of New Home Sales released by the US Census Bureau is an important measure of housing market conditions. House buyers spend money on furnishing and financing their homes so as a result the demand for goods, services and the employees is stimulated. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.9790 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9868. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9848, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9868.
     
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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD Currency Pair

    EUR USD

    EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1102.

    EUR/USD failed to confirm a bullish reversal with a close above 1.1153 on Monday.
    German GDP is expected to have contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter.

    HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1079 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1138 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1175.


    USD CAD

    USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3254.

    The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.


    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3229 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3203. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3298, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3342.

    AUD USD

    AUD traded higher against CAD and closed at 0.6775.

    The Aussie ignored upbeat Chinese data and risk-on trades on the Asian stocks. Focus remains on trade and US data.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6732 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6713. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6774, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6797.
     

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