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Discussion in 'Analisa Teknikal' started by xtreamforex.com, Jan 3, 2019.

  1. xtreamforex.com

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    Technical Overview of USD/JPY, EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair

    USD JPY

    The USD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 110.345.

    1- In past it formed a Motherbar Insidebar after a decline of 296 pips, It was in a phase of Accumulation.
    2 - Now its above the 60/80 Ema.
    3 - Here again it formed a Motherbar Insidebar.
    4 - Making a series of HH and HL.
    5 - 5 Day ADR High is 110.84 and Low is 109.76 , Roughly 110 pip.
    6 - Its above the Quarter and Year Pivot and is stalling @
    a- 5 Day ADR High
    b- Middle Support –1 Month
    C- High of the motherbar/insidebar

    Break above the 127 Extension of the motherbar high may trigger buying opportunities
    Alternatively
    Break of the Lower ADR value may resume the previous trend.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 110.182, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.018. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.566, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.786.

    USD JPY Previous Day range was 3840 and Current Day Range is 2370.


    EUR AUD

    The EUR traded higher against the AUD and closed at 1.6201.

    I have been watching this pair since 4 days as it has many aspects laying inside it

    1 - Making a series of HH and HL
    2 - Formed a Motherbar Inside bar @ D1
    3 - In confluence with
    Quarter Pivot
    Yearly and Quarter Resistance
    5 DAY ADR
    4 - Formed a Support Trend Line

    Break above 127 Extension may form a Bullish Momentum.
    Break below 127 Extension may form a Bearish Momentum.


    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.61838, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.61670. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.62278, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.62550.

    EUR AUD Previous Day range was 44 and Current Day Range is 39.4.

    EUR JPY

    The EUR traded lower against the JPY and closed at 123.03.

    EURJPY what is this Pair upto?

    1 - In past it formed a Motherbar Insidebar after a decline of 296 pips.
    2 - Now its above the 60/80 Ema.
    3 - Here again it formed a Motherbar Insidebar.
    4 - Making a series of HH and HL.
    5 - 5 Day ADR High is 123.63 and Low is 122.39, Roughly 150 pip.
    6 - It stalling @ Quarter Pivot &
    a - 5 Day ADR High
    b - Middle Support –1 Month
    C - High of the mother bar/in side bar

    Break above the 127 Extension of the mother bar high may trigger buying opportunities
    Alternatively
    Break of the Lower ADR value may resume the previous trend.


    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 122.837, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 122.645. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 123.362, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 123.695.

    EUR JPY Previous Day range was 5250 and Current Day Range is 2890.
     
  2. xtreamforex.com

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    Technical Overview of EUR/AUD Currency Pair

    EUR AUD

    The EUR traded higher against the AUD and closed at 1.6201.

    I have been watching this pair since 4 days as it has many aspects lying inside it.

    1 - Making a series of HH and HL.
    2 - Formed a Motherbar Inside bar @ D1.
    3 - In confluence with.
    Quarter Pivot
    Yearly and Quarter Resistance
    5 DAY ADR
    4 - Formed A Support Trend Line.

    Break above 127 Extension may form a Bullish Momentum.
    Break below 127 Extension may form a Bearish Momentum.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.61709, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.61406. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.62347, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.62682.

    EUR AUD Previous Day range was 63.8 and Current Day Range is 61.3.


    Fundamental Overview

    Market is Over Extended
    1 - We may see a Weakness in GBP as 3 of its High Impact news are not in a positive zone.
    2 - Westpac Now Forecasts 3 RBA Interest-Rate Cuts in 2019.
    3 - It confirmed that market is in a state of Risk Aversion/Risk Off.
     
  3. xtreamforex.com

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    Technical Overview of GBP/USD Currency Pair

    GBP USD

    [​IMG]


    The GBP traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.2711.

    1) The pair closed in its weekly value areas.
    2) A bullish sentiment after test of the VPOC may take the market upwards to the VPOC of last week and last 5th week.
    3) Pair is in between its 5 DAY ADR levels.
    4) Pair is continuously making high volume candles.
    5) Breakout zones are drawn on chart.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.26608, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.26110. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27464, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.27822.

    GBP USD Previous Day range was 85.6 and Current Day Range is 29.6.


    Fundamental Overview

    1 - GBP/USD - Boosted Slightly After PM May Resigns.
    2 - GBP: Time To Start Trimming Shorts, adding long GBPCHF.

    For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit our YouTube Channel.
     
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    Technical Overview of USD/JPY and EUR/AUD Currency Pair

    USD JPY

    The USD traded lower against the JPY and closed at 109.483.

    1) Pair stalls between the quarter and year pivot.
    2) Keep in mind that market is in RISK AVERSION.
    3) Breakout of 127 extension may lead the pair to a short trend.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 109.314, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.144. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.618, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.752.

    USD JPY Previous Day range was 3040 and Current Day Range is 2010.


    EUR AUD

    The EUR traded lower against the AUD and closed at 1.6176.

    1) PIVOT support line broken.
    2) Market is below the golden cross EMA.
    3) 127 Extensions level may decide the move direction.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.61570, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.61376. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.61917, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.62070.

    EUR AUD Previous Day range was 34.7 and Current Day Range is 47.
     
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    Technical Overview of AUD/JPY Currency Pair

    AUD JPY

    The AUD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 75.703.

    1) Pair in a tight range.
    2) Pair forms a Support @ 77.50.
    3) keep in mind that AUD announces time rate Cut in 2019 and total 4 times till 2020.
    4) So it makes no sense to waiting for resistance to be broker as we know JPY is safe heaven in this RISK Aversion state.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 75.517, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 75.330. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 75.919, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 76.134.

    AUD JPY Previous Day range was 4020 and Current Day Range is 2230.


    Economic Events

    1) RBNZ Financial Stability Report (It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future).
    2) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Announcement.
    3) GBP/USD: UK’s political uncertainty favors bears targeting 1.2600.

    For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit our YouTube Channel.
     
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    Overview of Gold – Bearish Sentiment Seen in This Week

    The XAU traded lower against the USD and closed at 1280.34.

    What do we have in the shiny material?
    1) Bearish ABCD Pattern.
    2) "C" @ 50% Retracement.
    3) "C" @ Monthly Pivot.
    4) "C" @ the Value Area Low of - 2 Week.
    5) "C" forms a Double Top in it - self, followed by 61.8% retracement.
    6) Forms a support trendline from D1 Pivot Candles.

    Scenarios:

    1. Bulls need to break above Month Pivot.
    2. Bears need to break below the D1 support trend line.
    According to the Analysis, The XAU/USD pair is expected to find support at 1277.77, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1275.20. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1284.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1288.16.

    XAU USD Previous Day range was 6.48 and Current Day Range is 31100.
     
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    Technical Overview of the Commodities Gold and Silver

    Overview of Gold

    1) It is expected, that the price for gold could continue to decline. A potential downside target is the support level at 1,273 & Stalls @ the monthly pivot.
    2) As it has formed a Large Bullish High volume Candle, It represents that the aggressive news buying is over and if the Highs r not broken then we may see it to decline again.
    3) It’s making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, Representing a declining position.
    4) It’s in a formation of Gartley Pattern.
    5) The D1 Price and Change in Candle Chart below For May 2019. We can see whenever the price and change in candle r in close proximity with each other they repell, triggering a change in trend.


    Overview of Silver
    1) It is expected, that the price for silver could continue to decline.
    2) From the past 10 weeks, Silver is declining and making a series of Lower Lows and Higher Lows.
    3) Now the Metal made a High Volume Candle.
    4) At the Weekly Pivot.
    5) Below the Last week Pivot.
    6) At the previous and current Value Area High.
    7) Test of 20 EMA from Daily 1 Chart.
    8) A break below close below candle may trigger a selling bias again.
    9) With Strong support @ SUP1 Week 1 = 14.38.
    10) With Strong Support @ SUP2 Month 1 =14.36.


    https://xtreamforex.com/academy/technical-overview-of-the-commodities-gold-and-silver/
     
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    Technical Overview of AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF Currency Pair

    AUD CAD

    The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9174.

    1-After making a down move of 406 pips, the pair begin ascending.
    2 - It’s above the 60/80 ema.
    3 - Its above the weekly and monthly Pivot.
    4 - It formed a Double Top Pattern, A breakout above the 127 Extension may lead the pair to covet the space made by 406 Pip down Move.
    5 - If we have a look at the Futures data then we may see that the slope of AUD is towards UP side and CAD is towards Down.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.93363, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92984. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.94012, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.94282.

    AUD CAD Previous Day range was 64.9 and Current Day Range is 30.3.


    AUD CHF

    The AUD traded lower against the CHF and closed at 0.6941.

    1 - The Pair formed a double top.
    2 - It could not breach the Up extension off 127 hence it confirms a double top.
    3 - The 60/80 ema is facing towards down.
    4 - Fundamentally as we know market is in Risk Off Scenario so we can gain help from the strength of Safe Heaven CHF to support this trade.
    5 - A space with many Open orders left to cover while going towards the down side remaining.
    6 - Pair is below the Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly and weekly forming a Proper Sync formation of trend.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.69279, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69151. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69624, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69841.

    AUD CHF Previous Day range was 34.5 and Current Day Range is 37.1.


    Weekly Briefing

    On Sunday, the Chinese government published a paper in which it was announced that China will not back off in the US-China trade war despite recent tariffs.
    The Chinese securities and markets regulators announced that the impact of trade wars on financial markets can be controlled.
    This may Strengthen The CNY because a few days earlier the officials said that those who short the CNY will face many Losses.

    The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority stated on Sunday steady slowdown of world economy growth could negatively affect oil market and, as a result, the country's economy temps of growth. It signals that when there will be instability then Who WILL BUY OIL? The Supply may exceed Demand.

    The J.P. Morgan analytics department stated on Saturday that escalating trade tensions with China and other countries could force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates two more times in 2019- High interest Rate = Strength of the Economy

    A fundamental surge has occurred. Due to another Trump tariff announcement the USD dropped like a brick. As a result of that commodity prices have jumped. Gold touched the 1,300.00 level on Friday.


    For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
  9. xtreamforex.com

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    Technical Overview of USD/JPY and NZD/CAD Currency Pair

    USD JPY

    The USD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 108.055.
    • The pair formed an AB= CD pattern.
    • It’s below Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly pivot.
    • NO Price Action Signal.
    • It broke the Pivot support trend line.
    • But
    • Fundamentally as we know that Safe Heaven is in demand and USD has announced a rate cut so we can assume to sell on the rallies.
    • As we can see the VPOC level 108.22 is a good Value area to go short.
    • This may be a purely fundamental trade if shorts take over the market.
    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 107.809, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.564. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.372, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.690.

    USD JPY Previous Day range was 5630 and Current Day Range is 3320.


    NZD CAD

    The NZD traded lower against the CAD and closed at 0.8864.
    • The main trend heads towards North.
    • Pivot support trendline formed.
    • Price successfully trading above the current and previous weekly pivot level.
    • Price breached towards north the - 3 week Pivots.
    • A Buy on the dips will be preferable.
    • For now
    • NZD is the strongest and USD and CAD are Weakest.
    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.87977. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88876, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89111.

    NZD CAD Previous Day range was 56.7 and Current Day Range is 30.6.


    Morning Briefing
    • The U.S. dollar fell on Monday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said an interest rate cut "may be warranted soon," given the rising economic risk posed by global trade tensions as well as weak U.S. inflation.
    • Hedge funds stepped up their negative bets on sterling.
    • While sterling edged further off five-month lows on Monday, rising 0.15% to $1.2645, short positions are slowly building up in the background, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors on the outlook for the British economy.
    • Short positions are at their highest level since March 17.
    • The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate on Tuesday to a new record low of 1.25%. We expect a follow-up cut in August, with the risk of additional stimulus by early 2020.
    • ING discusses EUR/USD: We are still expecting a downside breakout below the crucial horizontal support around 1.1115 in the coming weeks. This will trigger a serious Sell signal
    • EUR/USD Bulls May Retreat If ECB Tilts Dovish On Thursday.
    • Squawk: Prefer to sell USD/JPY on rallies, while maintains a long NZD/CAD as its trade of this week targeting a move towards 0.8950.

    Overview of Gold

    • From a theoretical point of view, it is expected, that a reversal south could occur in the nearest future.
    • In this case, the rate has to surpass the 1,309.31 level.
    • If the given support level holds, it is likely, that gold could trade sideways between it and the upper channel line.
    • It is unlikely, that the price for gold could jump higher than 1,333.68 due to the resistance of the Q1 R1.
    • Gold is above the yearly and Quarterly Pivots.
    • Better to wait for the Metal to form a Double Top and Fill the space it made.
    • Technically if we look at the Futures Data then we see that the data is making a formation of Double Top. If we break the neck line then we may have a down movement.
    • On the other hand we can see downwards slope in the USD Futures a crossover may strengthen USD.

    For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
  10. xtreamforex.com

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    Technical Overview of NZD/CAD Currency Pair

    NZD CAD

    The NZD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.8849.
    • Very Interesting pair for now.
    • Main trend aka 60/80 Ema is towards south.
    • The pair made a Pivot low candle support trend line.
    • It formed a Mb/Ib.
    • It’s above weekly Pivot and has formed a CUP Pattern.
    • A break above/below 127 extension may form a breakout.
    • Remember yesterday it was announced to stay long on NZDCAD.
    • Keep in mind that NZD is the most Interest paying nation for now.
    • The rate of change in Currency strength meter shows that NZD is the most strongest for now.
    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88361, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88235. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88672, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.88857.

    NZD CAD Previous Day range was 31.1 and Current Day Range is 37.8.


    Morning Briefing
    • USD: The U.S. dollar was modestly lower on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell alluded to the possibility of an interest rate cut in the face of economic risks, including the global trade war.
    • EURGBP: Weakening of domestic data in UK combined with euro spread compression, the EUR/GBP could move towards 0.90.
    • Believe tactical EUR/SEK short positions remain attract.. Also maintain our CAD/NOK short and EUR/GBP long exposure.
    • Short USD/JPY than long EUR/USD. Short EUR/JPY still works.
    • There’s a bit more AUD short-covering to come.
    • AUD/USD Traders A Green Light To Sell.
    News of the Day!

    AUD GDP to be announced today.
    As we can see in the history we have a decline situation. Due to Weaker retail sales, weaker employment and ewages data, so it’s expected to have a weaker GDP for now.
    To have a better GDP, The AUD must have readings above 0.40%.
     

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