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  1. xtreamforex.com

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    Dollar Topple; Inflation Concerns Indicate Substantial Week

    The Dollar Declined in early European trade on Friday after the one-week gain because traders considerably seem to be fine with the latest inflation data that could impact on Federal Reserve Policy.

    The Dollar Index, which traces the U.S. currency against a basket of six other currencies was declined 0.2% at 90.532.

    EUR/USD was traded 0.3% higher at 1.2109.

    GBP/USD was high 0.1% at 1.4068.

    USD/JPY was declined 0.1% at 109.39.

    AUD/USD elevated 0.2% to 0.7744.

    NZD/USD elevated 0.3% to 0.7192.

    The release of Factory gate price data in the U.S. on Thursday with the Producer Price Index Inclined by 0.6% in April and the Annual Figure climbed by 6.2% which was the highest yearly rise since the series was renewed in 2010.

    This powerful data add to Wednesday’s remarkable rise in consumer price. Submitting inflationary pressure is building up in the United States because of the vaccine rollouts ready to reopen of a rupturing economy.

    Benchmark 10- Year U.S. Treasury yields declined after the PPI data and now trade around 1.65%.

    For today, the centre of attraction will be the U.S. retail sales for April, which should continue to persist strongly after the impressive 9.7% rise in March, as well as industrial production numbers and consumer sentiments for May.

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    Dollar Higher Over Asian Covid-19 Upsurge Concerns

    The Dollar elevated on Monday morning in Asia amid distresses caused by fresh COVID-19 cases in some Asian Countries. Notwithstanding, investors are densely positioning for a drop in the U.S. currency as the U.S. Federal Reserve holds to its current dovish policy.

    The U.S. dollar index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies slightly up 0.06% to 90.373.
    The USD/JPY pair slightly up 0.01% to 109.336.
    The AUD/USD pair was declined 0.24% to 0.7753, with the reserve bank of Australia due to release the minutes from its latest meeting on Tuesday.

    The NZD/USD pair declined 0.52% to 0.7216.

    The USD/CNY pair Slightly up 0.03% to 6.4384.
    Chinese industrial production growth decreased to 9.8% yearly in April, as per the data released earlier in the day.

    The GBP/USD pair slightly down 0.04% to 1.4090.
    However, the pound was almost a two-and-a-half-month high as the U.K. reopens its economy after a four-month lockdown.

    The U.S. currency was supported by facilitating commodity prices and the COVID-19 outbreaks in Singapore and Taiwan with both countries hardening restrictive measures.
    Singaporean primary, secondary, junior college, and Millennia Institute students shifted to full home-based learning from May 19 till the end of the school term on May 28.

    However, a rebound from surprisingly good U.S. inflation data released during the earlier week dissolved over uprising investor hopes that the Fed will keep investment rates low.

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    Dollar Declined as Investors speculate on the U.S. Interest Rate Staying lower

    The dollar slipped on Tuesday morning in Asia, hitting a six-year low against its Canadian counterpart and hanging close to multi-month lows against European currencies because investors are expecting that up bets the U.S. Federal Reserve would not lift interest rates.

    The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies slightly down 0.05% to 90.097.

    The USD/JPY pair slightly up 0.03% to 109.22, with Japan’s slow COVID-19 vaccination rate and dollar weakness securing the duo into a narrow range.

    The yen also fell against the pound and the riskier currencies as data released earlier in the day said that the Japanese economy contracted more than expected during the first quarter of 2021, as its GDP contracted 5.1% yearly and 1.3% quarterly.

    The AUD/USD pair was high 0.35% to 0.7791, with the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes from its latest meeting earlier in the day.
    The NZD/USD pair gained 0.47% to 0.7234.
    The USD/CNY pair slightly down 0.17% to 6.4278.
    The GBP/USD pair was high 0.27% to 1.4173, its most powerful level since February 2021, as the U.K. begins to get out from the stringent COVID-19 lockdown.
    The dollar was at $1.2167 against the euro, close to its weakest level since Feb. 26, 2021. The Canadian dollar climbed to a six-year high of C$1.2045 against its U.S. counterpart, supported by a rise in oil prices.

    On Monday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan repeated his view that he does not expect interest rates to rise until 2022, thus sparking a further drop in bets that inflationary pressure could force the central bank to act sooner than expected.

    Other Fed officials are expected to speak throughout the week and investors also await the release of the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, due on Wednesday.

    Investors will examine the minutes once they are delivered for evidence as to the Fed’s monetary policy direction for the rest of 2021. However, an agreement is building that the Fed will continue with its current negative policy over the assumption that any acceleration in inflation is temporary, in turn keeping the dollar on a downward trend.

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    Dollar Steadied Against Major Currencies; Bitcoin Tumbled On China’s Verdict

    The Dollar Stabilized versus major currencies on Wednesday as traders were waiting for U.S. Federal Reserve minutes, Although bitcoin dropped after China halted its financial institutions from offering services related to cryptocurrency assets.

    The minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting is going to take place later on Wednesday are assumed to validate that policymakers are perhaps not ready to increase the rates.

    The U.S currency traded at $1.2076 against the Canadian dollar close to its weakest since May 2015.

    The GBP bought $1.4187, which was near its strongest level since late February.

    The EUR was constant at $1.2231.
    The dollar slightly moved at 108.96 against the yen and 0.8974 against the Swiss franc.
    Previous week Data showing U.S. consumer prices increased 4.2% in April from a year earlier, was the quickest development in more than a decade, boosting concerns the Fed will have to commence raising interest rates earlier.

    Fed policymakers confirmed that the rise is short-lived and repeated that they expect rates to remain flat, though not all are convinced by the Fed’s line.

    The Dollar Index traces the U.S. Currency against a basket of six major currencies was valued at 89.732.

    CAD and GBP Elevated as the expectations for policy tightening in Canada and the progressive lifting of all the restriction of coronavirus in Britain. However, any favorable inflation can lead the Dollar to recover from some of its losses.

    In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin plunged below the closely-watched $40,000-mark to a three-month low of $39,000.
    Ether dropped by more than 13% to $2,900, which is a two-week low.

    Managerial uncertainty has appeared as an adverse factor after China banned its financial systems from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.

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    The Dollar weakened as Fed Minutes Sign at Narrow Discussion

    The dollar dropped on Thursday morning in Asia as the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes unveiled that policymakers recommended a slowdown of bond purchase due to a sign of hastening inflation.

    The U.S. Dollar Index traces the greenback against a basket of other currencies slightly down 0.08% to 90.123

    The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.07% to 109.14 as April’s trade data released earlier in the day surpassed expectations.
    Exports expanded 38.0% year-on-year, Imports improved 12.8% year-on-year and the trade balance remains at JPY225.3 billion.

    The AUD/USD pair trimmed up 0.17% to 0.7740. Employment data for April released earlier in the day said that the employment change declined by 30,600 in April while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.5%.
    The NZD/USD pair slightly up 0.13% to 0.7176.

    The USD/CNY pair inched up 0.07% to 6.4385, with the People’s Bank of China releasing the loan prime rate earlier in the day.

    The GBP/USD pair slightly up 0.01% to 1.4114.

    Investors are shocked by the verdict of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed official has mentioned again that the Fed dovish policy will remain unchanged as any rise in inflation would be temporary.

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    A Busy Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, the Loonie, the Pound, and the U.S Dollar in Focus

    Technical Market Analysis


    EUR/USD

    Looking out to the pair, the price has already given the dip of 30 pips as the US dollar strengthened, by the mid of Thursday noon EUR/USD had been pushed up by the SMA to the resistance price of 1.2200. We can say that the pair will remain on the front foot around 1.2230 during the early morning today, later we have seen there was the decline of 0.5% of our dollar, On the monetary policy front, ECB president Lagarde is also scheduled to speak, major key levels of the pairs are as follow
    Support level 1.2226
    Resistance level 1.2239

    GBP/USD

    We can say that GBPUSD maintains a bullish bias in the short term picture, The pair opened at a higher price and quickly retreated toward the session’s low near 1.4169 giving the movement of 30 pips, Currently, the pair is trading at 1.4177 down of 0.08% on the day.
    support level 1.4166
    Resistance level 1.4181

    AUD/USD

    The Australian employment data largely disappointed yesterday giving the sharp decrease of 30,600 jobs against an expected gain of 15,000 jobs for April. Although there was a boost overnight following the slide on the greenback, the unemployment rate falls to 5.5%. Today we can see stable movement at 0.7756 and it could give the range between 0.78-0.7750 region for now. If there will be a break on any of these prices, it will give clarity on future movements
    Support level 0.7746
    Resistance level 0.7770

    XAU/USD

    The commodity is witnessed down on Friday morning in Asia Session as an improving outlook for Investors, however, dollar weakness and growth in Inflationary pressure capped losses. The latest update for the commodity is while bouncing off the intraday low, gold prints mild losses which is 0.10% coming around 1875.40 during Friday’s Asian session. Giving the consolidated gains, here are the levels it can witness today
    Support level 1870.34
    Resistance level 1878.44.

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    Currency Pairs Analysis

    EUR/USD

    The market opening gave a slow start for EUR/USD to open below 1.2200, speaking the trend for today. further rise is expected with the 1.2050 support intact. watching the sluggish upside movement, the break of 1.2244 will resume the rise from 1.1703 to retest 1.2348 high. In the corresponding scenario, the break of 1.2050 will delay the bullish case. Looking out to the big picture, the reluctance of Federal Reserve Officials to signal a recalibration of policy gave the boost in the economy, these conditions are going to favor the pair giving the bullish scenario.

    GBP/USD

    The pair have been seen picking the recovery to 1.14152, which is 0.03% intraday. ahead of today’s opening of the London session. In doing so, the pair is taking hints from the upbeat risk reversal for the recovery moves from a short-term support line. On the upside, the decisive break of 1.4240 will again lead uptrend for 1.4376 key resistance. This break will carry larger bullish implications giving the target of 38.2% retracement Speaking of an alternate scenario, the break of 1.4098 support will delay the bullish outlook.

    USD/JPY

    The USDJPY pair remained depressed heading into the European session. Watching the intraday bias in the pair, the movement of the pair will be neutral as the trading range continues. On upside above 109.77, it will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, the break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support. The US dollar rose 37 pips against the Japanese yen on Friday. All things being equal, the exchange rate could continue to edge higher. A possible target for the pair will be near the 103.30 area.

    XAU/USD

    Watching out the commodity, Gold is meeting critical monthly resistance. Gold edged higher during the early part of trading action today. Giving the four-month high of $1887, before pulling back slightly. Watching out the US Manufacturing and service PMI data which was stronger than expected boosted the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the US DOllar index is hovering near a three-month low of 90.02, lending support to the yellow metal.

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    Market analysis for 25th May 2021

    EUR/USD

    A bullish trend for the EURUSD pair is expected with an optimal forecast of 1.2279 and with daily volatility of 0.47%. The successive gains in the pair are credited to the downbeat performance of the US dollar. The higher point for the pair was $1.2215 yesterday, giving a positive outlook for further gains. But today the pair is giving the narrow range of 1.2210-30 staying close to the February highs. On the hourly chart, EUR/USD is still trading above the MA line (200) H1 ($1.2165). The situation is similar to the four-hour chart.

    GBP/USD

    Today, The pair is trading in the range of 1.4110-70, On the hourly chart, the pair is testing MA(200) H1 (1.4130) moving average line, but on the four-hour chart, it will be neutral. The main scenario for the pair’s promotion is the session high of 1.4170 and maybe can reach 1.4235. Looking out for the alternative scenario, if the support of 1.4080-1.4100 is broken, then the pair may fall to 1.4005.

    NZD/USD

    Kiwi Dollar recently broke the trendline, which is now in focus following the overnight higher move. The pair also now against its 20-day SMA. If the pair manages to break back above trendline resistance, then we can see the new higher highs. Alternatively, a move lower would look for support at 61.8%. With the strong momentum, line favoring NZDUSD bulls, the quote’s run-up towards another trend line resistance, around 0.7255 becomes imminent. Though any upside needs to cross 0.7270 before challenging the monthly top near 0.7305.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices have held the multi-month bull flag resistance, which is increasing the confidence that a march back to all-time highs has begun. This boost in gold has been noticed after the weakness in US Treasury yields. The XAUUSD pair started the week on a firm footing and extended its technical buying pressure. Resistance of the pair may target 1902 giving the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.80%. Support is seen near the 200 SMA at 1845.

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    Market update for today

    EUR/USD

    The market opening gave a slow start for EUR/USD to open below 1.2200, speaking the trend for today. further rise is expected with the 1.2050 support intact. watching the sluggish upside movement, a break of 1.2244 will resume the rise from 1.1703 to retest 1.2348 high. In corresponding scenario, the break of 1.2050 will delay the bullish case. Looking out to the big picture, the reluctance of Federal Reserve Officials to signal a recalibration of policy gave the boost in the economy, these conditions are going to favor the pair giving the bullish scenario.

    GBP/USD

    The pair have been seen picking the recovery to 1.14152, which is 0.03% intraday. ahead of today’s opening of the London session. In doing so, the pair is taking hints from the upbeat risk reversal for the recovery moves from a short-term support line. On the upside, the decisive break of 1.4240 will again lead uptrend for 1.4376 key resistance. This break will carry larger bullish implications giving the target of 38.2% retracement Speaking of an alternate scenario, the break of 1.4098 support will delay the bullish outlook.

    USD/JPY

    The USDJPY pair remained depressed heading into the European session. Watching the intraday bias in the pair, the movement of the pair will be neutral as the trading range continues. On upside above 109.77, it will resume the rebound from 107.47 to retest 110.95 high. On the downside, the break of 108.34 will turn bias back to the downside for 107.47 support. The US dollar rose 37 pips against the Japanese yen on Friday. All things being equal, the exchange rate could continue to edge higher. A possible target for the pair will be near the 103.30 area.

    XAU/USD

    Watching out the commodity, Gold is meeting critical monthly resistance. Gold edged higher during the early part of trading action today. Giving the four-month high of $1887, before pulling back slightly. Watching out the US Manufacturing and service PMI data which was stronger than expected boosted the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the US Dollar index is hovering near a three-month low of 90.02, lending support to the yellow metal.

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    TECHNICAL OVERVIEW 28TH MAY

    EUR/USD


    EUR/USD recently broke the level of 1.22. trending upwards. The currency pair is moving towards the support zone of 1.21500 and the next resistance zone is at 1.23200. Look for buying opportunities for the pair if it bounces up the support zone of 1.21500. the previous day, mainly on US Dollar, rebound ahead of the key inflation figures and budget announcements. The US inflation figures are likely to favor the US dollar, upbeat expectations from the budget may tame the greenback’s upside, likely restricting EUR/USD losses.

    GBP/USD

    GBP/USD recently bounced up from the key level of 1.41 after the hawkish remark made by a BANK OF ENGLAND committee member that if the current furlough program were to end smoothly by the end of this year, it will likely to appropriate for the central bank to increase rate next year. The currency pair is testing to break above the key level of 1.42. Its next support is at 1.40000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.43500—look for buying opportunities if it breaks above the key level of 1.42

    AUD/USD

    AUD/USD is ranging across—it was announced yesterday that Australia’s Victoria states will be going under 1-week lockdown in an attempt to contain the COVID outbreak in Melbourne. AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.75500 and the next resistance zone is at 0.78000. Look for selling opportunities for the pair. The pair is holding the lower ground below 0.7750, although clinging to its recent trading range. The US Dollar sees renewed buying interest, despite the risk-on mood fueled by president Biden’s spending plans. All eyes on US Core PCE Index

    XAU/USD

    The US Dollar is creeping higher, while the price of gold is trading down some 0.11% on the day, slipping below the hourly 10 EMA from a high of $1898 to print $1894, the low for a day so far. However, from a daily perspective, the emphasis on the upside following what appears to be a meanwhile and healthy correction in an otherwise strongly bullish environment.

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    #200 xtreamforex.com, May 28, 2021
    Last edited: May 28, 2021

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