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Discussion in 'Analisa Teknikal' started by xtreamforex.com, Jan 3, 2019.

  1. xtreamforex.com

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    Options market USD/CAD turns most bearish in last two weeks & expecting volatility in future

    WTI crude fell to $70.40 in an early two-day rally on Tuesday. While the 2-day symmetrical triangle limits Black Gold’s recent move, adding 50 HMA to the RSI’s decline and the upper barrier is encouraging for sellers. However, a clear downward break of the triangular support level near $69.20 at the time of issue was necessary for oil sellers to regain control.
    After that, a Friday low of $68.30 will attract the market’s attention before lowering the WTI bearish to a September low of around $67 and a July low of around $65. On the other hand, the rise in commodity prices will be a nutritious nut around $72.00 including the triangular resistance and 50 HMA. Even if the price crosses $72, Friday’s high of $74 could provide an additional filter before oil moves up to $77.60. This implies an upside on the 25th of November.
    The options market scenario supports USDCAD sellers ahead of today’s testimony of Canada’s GDP and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The reason for the bearish trend may be related to the cautious optimism of the market on Monday. However, recent doubts about the ability of the vaccine to tame a South African Covid variant known as Omicron support US $ / Canadian dollar buyers. With that in mind, the USD / CAD recorded a 0.30% daytime rise of about 1.2790 at the time of the press.

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    USD/JPY is recovering from a nearly two-month low and is climbing above the 113.00s mid-point

    USD/JPY maintained its footing in pre-European trading and last traded near its daily high at 113.60. After overnight volatile price movements, the USD/JPY pair gained some positive dynamics on Wednesday and found support from several factors. Global risk sentiment has stabilized slightly as investors decide to wait and see if the new strain of Omicron corona virus will ultimately hamper the economic recovery. This is evidenced by a good recovery in the stock market, which weakened the safe Japanese yen and acted as a headwind for major currencies.
    Key Notes:
    The combination of supporting factors continued to help USD/JPY recover from a two-month low.
    A modest recovery in risk sentiment eroded the safe yen and maintained the favor.
    The bulls also sensed a rise in US bond yields, but a devaluation of the US dollar could limit returns
    The Bulls also turned to a subsequent rebound in US Treasury yields, helped by restrictive comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. When testifying in front of the Senate Banking Commission, Powell said it was time to get off the floor and it would be appropriate to consider ending the asset purchase expansion perhaps a few months earlier. He added that the risk of persistently high inflation is increasing and high inflation is expected by next year.
    In response to Chairman Powell’s remarks, short-term financial markets have begun evaluating the possibility of a rate hike of at least 50 basis points through the end of 2022. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor in continuing to support US bond yields. Despite interest rate hikes driven by more aggressive Fed tightening, the US dollar has so far struggled to entice meaningful purchases. This could deter traders from displaying aggressive bullishness and limit the continued recovery of the USD/JPY pair from its near two-month low. Market participants are now eagerly awaiting US economic reports including ADP report and ISM manufacturing PMI. A joint speech by FRS Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the House Financial Services Committee is also expected to affect the strength of the dollar. Going forward, traders will consider developments surrounding the coronavirus saga and broader market risk sentiment to capitalize on some of the opportunities associated with the USD/JPY pair.

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    USD/JPY pair may return to 113.00 amid falling yields

    USD/JPY rebounded to 113.00 during its first open in Tokyo on Thursday, struggling to defend its first of a three-day advance. The yen appears to be receiving signals from the dollar’s rebound and a surge in global market volatility reflecting recent moves. But the Fed’s next move and eagerness to put safety at risk amid mixed fears of the Omicron crisis are keeping the Japanese currency at the top of the safe haven list and raising doubts among bull markets.

    USD/JPY hit an intraday high and fell near its two-month low, during the pre-NFP trade downturn, markets are sluggish and mixed signals from the Fed add to the hesitation.

    The US is considering extending the shelf life of masks after marking the first Omicron case. The OECD is downgrading its global growth projections, with Japan’s GDP expected to rise to 1.8% in 2021 from 2.5% in previous projections.

    While reiterating concerns about inflation, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he still believes inflation will “fall significantly” in the second half of 2022, while speaking out against a Senate committee. In contrast, New York Federal Reserve Governor John C. Williams said the New York Times said Omicron could extend the supply-demand mismatch, leaving some inflationary pressure.

    The 10-year Treasury yield is under pressure near its two-month low at around 1.42% at the time of release, while S&P 500 futures are trading up 0.30% since the Wall Street benchmarks released. But the promise of safety is supported by the latest news about corona virus options in South Africa. Following the first Oh Micron incident in the United States, the Joe Biden administration has put pressure on people to expand the rules for wearing masks on public transportation. “The administration of President Joe Biden will extend the requirement for travelers to wear masks on planes, trains, buses, and airports and train stations by mid-March to address the current risk of Omicron as reported by Reuter. Add to that risk shift and could be the latest economic forecast from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which suggests that global GDP will grow by 5.6% in 2021 (previously 5.7%) and 4.5% in 2022. According to Reuters, it is 3.2% in 2023.


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    NZD/USD stays directed towards 0.6710 supports after softer China data, US NFP eyed

    NZD/USD remained bearish near the intraday low of 0.6786 since the Chinese Caixin PMI released early on Friday. At the same time, the kiwi pair reflects disappointing market sentiment and also responds to soft data ahead of key data on US non-farm payroll (NFP). China Caixin Services PMI for November fell to 52.1 from below 53.8, and the composite PMI also fell to 51.2 from 51.5 in the same month. At the same time, indicators of private activity differ from the official values published earlier this week.

    Much of the bearish sentiment is adding to the broader strength of the US dollar in hopes of a faster contraction in the Federal Reserve after politicians appeared hawkish in their final speech before the silence began this Saturday. Key proponents of easing faster paybacks, which also fuel fears of inflation, include San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank (FRS) Governors Mary Daley and Thomas Barkin Richmond.

    Fed’s hawkish outlook, as well as a weaker-than-expected result for the week’s early and ongoing US unemployment claims, a dismal job cut for November applicants, also reinforced hopes for a faster austerity policy and favorable returns from the Fed. The Wall Street indicator also posted a consolidated weekly loss the previous day, but it should be noted that S&P 500 futures and Asia Pacific stocks fell earlier on Friday.

    The reason may have to do with the hopes of US politicians to avoid a government shutdown on Saturday. Also positive for kiwi prices may be recent optimism about the search for a cure for a South African strain of coronavirus called Omicron. Meanwhile, Beijing’s remarks about the EUUS’s recent dislike of China and the first phase of trade negotiations and tariffs seem to challenge risk appetite. In a similar vein, caution has been created ahead of the US employment report.

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    AUD / USD defends 0.7000, prepares for RBA omissions, PBOC RRR falls in stronger yields

    The AUD / USD rose slightly to 0.701015 during the Asian session on Monday, licking the wounds after the sharp daily decline since early May. Optimistic views on the Australian economy, expectations for a rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as Fed linked chatter dragged the Australian pair to new lows in 2021. Preparations recently police officers. Careful optimism in the market can be on the same line. Prior to the RBA meeting, Bloomberg released a poll stating that “The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to be the last meeting of the year.”

    On the other hand, ANZ said: “China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang has promised the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) without specifying a date. Possible reconstruction by default.” In addition to RBA and PBOC chatter, optimistic printouts of second-tier data at home also supported the AUD / USD price. However, Australia’s TD stock inflation rate rose more than 0.2% to 0.3% in November, with ANZ job ads rising from 6.2% last month to 7.4%.

    In addition, the hope of finding a cure for a variant of South Africa’s Covid known as Omicron is less dangerous than initially feared, adding to rumors that it has fueled market sentiment and AUD / USD prices increase. After first hitting Europe and the United Kingdom, the virus strains are strengthening their grip to reach major world countries such as the United States and China. However, it should be noted that scientists around the world are optimistic about treatments. Recently, senior US doctor Anthony Fauci has confirmed that Pfizer’s drug against Omicron is effective. Meanwhile, the news that chewing gum can contain the spread of the virus and the UK’s treatment efforts are also hopeful for distributors.

    In addition, Australian Finance Minister Josh Frydenberg’s comment was positive for the AUD / USD rate. According to Reuters, policymakers may revise Australia’s 2022 GDP forecast during a mid-year budget update. It is noteworthy that prices fell sharply on Friday as the US dollar suffered a sudden drop in non-farm payroll (NFP) while trading the unemployment rate collapse. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike were also raised by comments from President St. James Bullard. “We may consider raising interest rates before the cut is complete,” policymakers said. Wall Street’s benchmark closed negative, but Friday’s US Treasury 10-year yield fell about 10 basis points (bps) to 1.35%, the lowest level since late September. In the future, risk catalysts and pre-RBA sentiment could boost AUD / USD prices on a bright calendar.

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    How might Reserve Bank of Australia decision on Interest rates affect AUD/USD?

    As with the first Tuesday of every month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is ready to announce its latest monetary policy meeting and interest rate decision around 03:30 GMT. The RBA is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.10% and unchanged its weekly $40 billion bond purchases. Weaker recent third-quarter inflation data from Australia and a stronger wage price index appear to help policymakers keep the status quo.
    However, due to concerns arising from the South African covid variant, AUD/USD traders should pay close attention to the RBA exchange rate table for clear guidance given the oversold trend of the Australian currency pair near its 2021 lows.

    Key notes:

    AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls hope to test the 0.71

    AUD/USD pattern. RBA Reserve Bank of Australia further declines, risk-free preview: market participants await more stringent hints
    AUD/USD reached an intraday high near 0.7055 ahead of a major RBA decision early on Tuesday. The Australian currency pair appears to be cautiously preparing for RBA commentary which may be depressing amid bullish markets. It should be noted, however, that Australian Health Minister Greg Hunt has recently welcomed the introduction of a coronavirus vaccine in Australia, thus implying a more robust RBA statement.
    However, AUD/USD traders will pay little attention to the RBA’s ruling unless the central bank cites significant catalysts or hints for a decline in bond buying in February. Still, optimism about the country’s vaccination program could help the couple maintain their recent gains after monetary policy decisions.

    Technically, AUD/USD is holding from the November 2020 bottom in RSI oversold conditions. However, the correction retreat remains within the 5-week trend downtrend channel. The August 2021 bottom near 0.7105 attracts short-term buyers ahead of the event, while the convergence of 10DMA and the upper line of the specific channel near 0.7125 are tough nuts for the bulls.

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    AUD/USD holds up to 0.7170 despite new sentiment challenge

    AUD/USD fell to 0.7120 after hitting a one-week high in Wednesday’s early Asian session. A new challenge to the pre-risk sentiment before is bullish, but the Australian technical breakout of a major hurdle gives buyers hope in a quiet session with no significant data/events.
    AUD/USD is rallying to its weekly high after two days of gains. Yields have fallen and US stock futures remain moderate amid mixed concerns. America, Russia and Sino-American Stories are battling a retreat from the horrors of Omicron.

    A bright calendar, market expectations for Friday’s US CPI, indicates risk factors for a new impulse.

    The US warns Russia of sanctions and aids Ukraine with military force if the Kremlin invades Kiev. A senior US State Department official said on Tuesday that the Biden administration was “focused on how to respond to the new German government if Russia invades Ukraine.” A US State Department official said on Tuesday. Reuters.

    The US boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics is a bad sign for China, as Dragon Nation warns Washington of the consequences. In addition, concerns about companies facing a real estate crisis in China, such as Evergrande and Kaisa, are waning market optimism. In contrast, easing concerns over the South African strain of coronavirus, dubbed Omicron, and hopes for further stimulus from China are encouraging AUD/USD buyers. Against this backdrop, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 1.47%, down 2 basis points to 1.47% in two days, and S&P 500 futures struggling to keep up with the monthly benchmark. Continually, the lack of critical data/events keeps the risk catalyst in the driver’s seat. However, the latter risk factor could trigger the consolidation of AUD/USD gains due to the state of the risk indicator for that pair.

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    Uncertainty Affects Financial Markets

    The dollar found some strength during London trading hours, but ended the day lower against most major rivals. The greenback fell despite most European and US indexes closing in the red, and while government bond yields rose to fresh weekly highs. Some profit-taking and the idea that the Fed could ramp up cuts could be the driving force behind the market’s behavior.
    Trading was active throughout the day, as investors struggled to understand developments in the corona virus. France, the United Kingdom and Germany have announced restrictive measures amid the escalating epidemic in Europe. On the other hand, Pfizer has said that a dose of its coronavirus booster vaccine is effective against the Omicron variant. Early studies show that people who have had the covid plus two injections or those who have had a third shot are highly protected against the highly mutated strain.
    The EUR/USD pair recovered as much as the 1.1350 region, whilst the AUD/USD pair nears 0.7200, regardless of scarce macroeconomic calendars. Plan B: the United Kingdom Prime Minister introduced what he called “plan B” to comprise the modern day coronavirus outbreak. Boris Johnson cited that the range of recent instances are doubling each 2-three days, and introduced a few restrictive measures. From Friday 10 December, face coverings becomes obligatory in maximum public indoor venues, whilst from Monday thirteen December, folks who can can be cautioned to paintings from home.
    Finally, and difficulty to parliamentary approval, an NHS Covid Pass becomes obligatory to go into any crowd gathering. GBP/USD plummeted to a clean 2021 low of 1.3244 in advance of the event, although, given the extensive dollar`s weakness, the pair completed the day round 1.3230. Whereas, Gold continues ranging inside acquainted levels, now buying and selling round $1,786.00 a troy ounce. Crude oil costs ticked marginally higher, with WTI now at $72.forty a barrel.
    Asian equities remain largely buoyant on Thursday’s hopes of a stimulus package that will dissipate virus concerns ahead of the European meeting. To reflect the sentiment, non-Japan MSCI Asia Pacific shares rose 0.81% while Japan’s Nikkei 225 shares fell 0.15% at the latest. Concerns about COVID-19 resurface as virus activity restrictions resume in Germany, France and the UK. However, headlines from major COVID vaccine manufacturers indicate the effectiveness of booster vaccinations to tame a South African strain of corona virus called Omicron.

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    AUD/USD struggles despite firmer sentiment and bullish iron ore prices

    AUD/USD eased on Friday and recovered to 0.7170 ahead of the European session on Monday. The Australian pair initially welcomed market optimism and news of stimulus from Australia and China to reduce daily losses. Nonetheless, market fears over major events to be announced this week appear to be putting pressure on the latest quotes. Australia’s Finance Minister Friedenberg is set to announce an extension to the current government loan guarantee for small businesses, which expires at the end of December, Australian media reported. Meanwhile, Chinese politicians at the annual Central Economic Working Conference promised to use monetary and fiscal policy instruments to stabilize the world’s second-largest economy in 2022.
    Also positive for the AUD/USD pair is the rising price of iron ore, the largest export. “The price of iron ore futures in May 2021 will rise more than 5.0% to 671 yuan ($105.46) per ton,” Reuters reported in its Asia session. It’s worth noting that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday showed market sentiment and AUD/USD in favor of market sentiment as inflation data were in line with November expectations. Pair buyers also benefited from lower US inflation expectations, measured at the 10-year breakeven under the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED).
    However, market fears of signs of faster Fed tightening and rate hikes have fueled political hawks to anticipate the need for further inflation and austerity measures as the widespread spread of the coronavirus in South Africa called Omicron has prompted political hawks. It hasn’t faded yet. In a similar vein, there are discussions about the suspension of production of some Chinese companies in Zhejiang and the delay of Sense Time’s Hong Kong IPO of $767 million. Under these circumstances, 10-year US Treasury yields hovered around 1.49%, US equities futures rose modestly and Asia Pacific equities mixed at the latest. The absence of significant data/events in China should caution AUD/USD traders ahead, but the collapse of Chinese data on Wednesday could provide intermediate relief for the pair’s optimists ahead of the Fed’s verdict.

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    EUR/USD is still at risk of Omicron Covid

    EUR/USD fell on prospects that the EU will become the epicenter of the new covid strain, Omicron. As of this writing, EUR/USD is trading from 1.1277 to the lows of 1.1273 and 1.1286, with little or no change throughout the day in the early-week range.
    According to the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC), at least 6,430 cases of the strain have been confirmed in 70 countries since the discovery in late November. This option is said to be becoming dominant in Europe. Although European countries first reported cases of the disease, this strain has not yet been found across the continent.

    Meanwhile, concerns over new options boosted risk sentiment on Monday and the FTSE 100 closed 0.73% lower at 654. The S&P 500 closed 0.9% lower at 4,668.97 on similar margins. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.4% to 15,413.28, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% to 35,650.95. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell 8 basis points to 1.41%, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond fell 3 basis points to 0.63%. EUR/USD reduced the loss to around 25 pips to 1.1290.

    This week the central bank will be in the spotlight. “Until now, the European Central Bank (ECB) considered inflation to be temporary, but it is becoming more and more elastic,” said ANZ Bank analyst. The analyst continued: “The US Federal Reserve has recently changed its mind on inflation and it is very likely that the ECB will change its stance at its meeting later this week. Inflation in the euro area is high, with consumer prices currently at a record 4.9%, well above the 2% target.” “Unlike the United States, the economic recovery in Europe is much more fragile and the region is currently experiencing a wave of omicron cases. At this stage, the ECB expects inflation to fall to 1.5% in 2023 and will soon release its inflation forecast for 2024, analysts explained.

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